Analysis of Uganda’s Post Elections

Feb 17, 2021 Leader Cover Story 0

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On Saturday 16th January 2021, the Chairperson of the Electoral Commission, Justice Simon Byabakama Mugenyi announced the results of the presidential election held on Thursday, 14th January 2021. The elections, which were anticipated to be violent and chaotic turned out largely peaceful in most parts of the country. There were eleven presidential candidates in a race that attracted only one woman.

The incumbent, President Yoweri Museveni Tibuhaburwa Kaguta was declared the winner with 58.6% of the votes. The youthful presidential candidate, Hon. Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu aka Bobi Wine who is contesting the outcome of the official results came second with 34.8% of the votes. The FDC presidential candidate, Hon. Eng. Patrick Oboi Amuriat (POA) garnered 3.7% of the votes, placing him in the third position.

The latest dip in the score and popularity of the president-elect, Mr. Museveni is the lowest in a series of declining performances since 1996 when electoral politics was reintroduced in Uganda. Some Analysts attributed the poor performance of the NRM party in their usual strongholds in Central and Eastern parts of Uganda to the removal of age limits from the constitution.

According to the Electoral Commission, voter turnout was at 57% showing just an average degree of interest in participation by the registered voters. However, the regional voting pattern that was remarkably different from what Ugandans are accustomed to is what generated debates. The bedrock of NRM support, the Buganda region and most parts of Busoga voted overwhelmingly for the opposition party, the National Unity Platform (NUP). The Northern and West Nile regions that have consistently voted for the Opposition in a rare twist voted for the ruling NRM party candidate with an average of at least 60% in most of the districts.

The Head of European Union (EU) delegation, Ambassador Atillio Pacifici said they were impressed with the level of organization of the election. Preliminary reports from International election observers of the East African Community (EAC) and the African Union (AU) commended the Electoral Commission and Uganda at large for organizing a free, fair and transparent election.

However, the US and UK observer missions that weren’t fully accredited didn’t agree with the free and fair commendations. It is important to understand events before, during polls and after the declaration of results at the various polling stations, and the final declaration from the national tally centre at Kyambogo in the capital Kampala.

A few questions come to mind; what was the mood like in most parts of Uganda after the announcement of the results of the presidential elections? Will the campaigns and elections have serious impact on the way of life of Ugandans? The heavy deployment of the military, Police and Local Defense Units (LDUs) in the capital and all major towns in previous elections and this election have been interpreted as a sign of intimidation of people opposed to the regime. It also deeply entrenches the perception that violence is part and parcel of elections in Uganda.

This perception has a far-reaching impact on the democratic process. Footages of armoured tanks and APCs rolling out in Kampala city and downtown Kisekka market that is notorious for demonstrations and riots were widely shared on social media platforms before the internet shutdown. Suk hoi jet fighters hovered over big towns in what many people thought was a psychological warfare informing Ugandans that their future would only be secure with the status quo, which was the basis of the NRM party manifesto and campaign.

By Jimmy Odoki Acellam – Freelance writer

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